Private Club Waitlists and Member Attrition: What the Data Tells Us

The private club industry has seen remarkable growth since 2020, with waitlists becoming the norm and averaging 70 prospective members per club. But while it may seem like demand will stay high indefinitely, new data suggests otherwise. According to Jason Becker, CEO of Golf Life Navigators, shifts in the real estate market—often a reliable predictor of private club trends—indicate that clubs should start preparing for higher attrition rates and changing member expectations sooner rather than later.

The Delayed Resignation Wave

During the pandemic, many older members who might have otherwise resigned chose to stay put. Uncertainty in the world and a renewed appreciation for community kept them engaged longer than expected. But now, those members—many in their mid-80s—are finally making their long-delayed transitions. Becker highlights this trend, noting that the private club industry is about to experience a natural, yet significant, shift in membership turnover. 

This shift, coupled with other market forces, suggests that club attrition rates could not only return to pre-pandemic levels of 8-10% but potentially exceed them. Becker warns that clubs comfortable with a steady pipeline of new members may find themselves unprepared for unexpected membership turnover.

Real Estate Trends: A Crystal Ball for Private Clubs

One of the strongest indicators of shifting club membership is real estate activity. Becker emphasizes that "90% of people that are looking at a golf membership are combining that search with the home." Right now, the surge in golf community home listings isn't just a routine market fluctuation. Becker explains how this reflects deeper demographic shifts, changing priorities, and a wave of sellers looking to capitalize on recent price increases.

For clubs, this means two things:

1. More turnover among existing members as they sell their homes and move on.

2. A new class of potential members with evolving expectations and priorities.

Beyond Golf: The Evolution of Member Expectations

It’s no secret that today’s prospective members are evaluating clubs differently than previous generations. While golf remains important, it’s no longer the top deciding factor—especially in markets like the Sunbelt. Instead, service quality has taken center stage.

"Clubs can build amenities all day long," Becker says, "but I think the future of the private club is going to be service offerings, whether it be daycare, detailing of cars, dry cleaning, etc."

Modern members, particularly those in their 40s and 50s, are looking for clubs that enhance their lifestyles and save them time. That’s why forward-thinking clubs are investing in amenities beyond the golf course—think childcare services, car detailing, and even on-site dry cleaning. But catering to these demands comes with its own challenges, as clubs must strike a balance between modern conveniences and the traditions that keep long-time members engaged.

Financial Transparency Matters More Than Ever

Today’s prospective members aren’t just asking about amenities and social offerings—they want to understand a club's financial health before committing. Clubs are increasingly fielding detailed questions about capital improvement plans, assessment histories, and long-term financial strategies.

Becker points out that transparency is becoming a competitive advantage. Clubs that proactively communicate their financial plans and governance strategies will stand out in the marketplace, attracting and retaining members who value stability and foresight.

Real Estate Strategy: A Key to Long-Term Stability

Golf Life Navigators collects data from hundreds of golf clubs nationally. For golf communities, the “capture rate”—the percentage of community residents who become full golf members—is a crucial metric. Ideally, Becker says clubs should aim for a capture rate of 40% or higher. But in prime markets like Southwest Florida, many clubs are seeing rates as low as 17-19%, meaning they rely heavily on outside members to maintain financial stability.

One way clubs are addressing this challenge is by forming strategic partnerships with real estate brokerages. These partnerships help ensure that new homebuyers are not only aware of the club but are also a good fit for its culture and financial model. Becker stresses that this approach, when done right, benefits both clubs and realtors, creating a pipeline of engaged, long-term members.

Investing in Technology for Member Acquisition

Despite today’s waitlists, leading clubs are investing in modern sales and marketing technology to prepare for the future. Surprisingly, about 75% of membership directors still operate without proper CRM systems or automated marketing campaigns, despite the fact that major financial decisions, like joining a club, typically require 7-9 touchpoints before a prospect commits.

Becker advocates for this tech-forward approach, noting that clubs with streamlined communication and tracking systems will have a significant advantage as market dynamics continue to shift.

Aligning Price with Value

Due to high demand in recent years, many clubs have significantly increased their initiation fees. While this has helped offset lower attrition rates, it has also created new expectations. Prospective members who pay premium prices expect premium experiences. If clubs fail to deliver, they could face not only retention challenges but also risks to their reputation.

This means clubs need to ensure that their service levels, amenities, and overall member experience justify their price points. Becker points out that members want to feel confident that they’re making a worthwhile investment, not just joining a club with an inflated fee structure. 

Planning for Long-Term Success

The clubs that will navigate these changes most successfully are those taking a proactive approach. This means investing in the right infrastructure for member acquisition and retention, continuously refining service offerings, and maintaining clear, transparent communication about financial planning.

Becker's data shows that members are generally accepting of assessments and capital improvements—when they’re part of a well-communicated, strategic plan. Clubs that take the time to engage their members in these discussions will be better positioned for long-term success.

Looking Beyond the Waitlist Mentality

The private club industry remains strong, but the signs of change are clear. Clubs that take a long-term view—focusing on sustainability rather than just waitlist numbers—will be the ones that thrive in any market condition.

This means:

• Investing in both traditional and modern amenities.

• Keeping financial transparency at the forefront.

• Leveraging technology to improve sales and marketing efforts.

• Ensuring new members align with the club’s culture and long-term goals.

Private clubs are more than just places to play golf—they are communities. And the clubs that recognize and plan for evolving member expectations will be the ones that continue to grow and succeed, no matter what the market brings.